The San Francisco 49ers have made a most unexpected return to the top class of the NFL. After going 6-10 last season, they made a dramatic turnaround, winning their division and defeating the mighty New Orleans Saints to advance to the NFC Championship game.
All this with a rookie coach.
And even more than John Harbaugh’s first year as coach, the 49ers endured another season of Alex Smith, long seen as a failed draft pick. And yet they won.
Yet too much of the story regarding the resurgent 49ers has focused on two elements I’ve already mentioned: Alex Smith and John Harbauagh.
What they should be focused on are two areas where the 49ers have shaped their turnaround.
The ‘Underrated’ Overrated Stat
Watching the Niners take down the Saints, one thing became eminently clear. The bruising hits delivered on Saints receivers revealed just how physical the San Francisco defense is.
And one timeless way to measure physicality is run defense. By that measure, the 49ers are number one in rushing yards surrendered. They’ve also allowed only a very stingy 3.5 yards per attempt as a defense. That’s number one as well.
The most impressive statistic, and probably the most revealing, is the number of rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed.
From week one through the fourth quarter of week 16, the 49ers did not allow a single rushing touchdown.
And when you consider that they faced six of the top ten rushing touchdown leaders, it becomes more impressive.
In an age where the passing game has become the most influential part of offense, having a good rushing defense would seem a peripheral attribute.
Yet it’s a critical part of winning in the playoffs. How often are close games made even closer by a team’s ability to convert on 4th and 1’s? Or redzone efficiency?
Indeed, the supposedly overrated stat of run defense has proven itself a source of strength for the Niners. And it gets to the heart of truly how tough a defense is. After all, what’s a more clear measure of strength than stopping the run near their own endzone?
That San Francisco only surrendered 37 rushing yards to a talented Saints team was, if anything, expected.
Turnover Dominance
The most vital part of San Francisco’s resurgence has been their mastery of mistakes made versus mistakes caused (in their opposition).
No team was better in the category of turnovers. The 49ers committed a league low ten turnovers. Conversely, they caused a league high 38.
Creating a turnover ratio of +28 (a mark that far and away leads the league), they’ve become the NFL’s version of Iceman from Top Gun.
They wear you down as a team, coldly and patiently waiting for the moment when a mistake is made. Then they pounce.
It’s not the flashiest brand of football, but it’s definitely the most effective. It goes without saying San Francisco won the turnover battle against New Orleans last week, five to one.
The disturbing part is that it took all of those turnovers plus the heroics from Alex Smith and Vernon Davis to win. So if you’re a Niners fan, you can be confident that your team will win. You just need to pray the keep up the Iceman routine.
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