The Curious Case of the Patriots Offense

Wes Welker is unequivocally the Patriots best receiver. That much is indisputable.

The diminutive, shifty wideout has carved a noteworthy career in the NFL by being world class at getting open somewhere between the line of scrimmage and ten yards downfield, catching the ball and running for additional yards.

Behind Welker, the Patriots certainly have other options for Tom Brady. Yet the second and third best pass-catchers currently in the New England arsenal aren’t even technically wide receivers.

With respect to Deion Branch, the go-to targets after Welker are tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. Though Branch has the experience and is nonetheless a vital part of New England’s offense, both Gronk and Hernandez have more yards and touchdowns.

That two tight ends join Welker at the top of the stats is both interesting and revealing.

Matriculating Their Way to Victory

So far this season, the Patriot offense has been one of the league’s best, particularly at moving the ball in short yardage.

Now, at the mention of the term “short yardage”, this generally conjures up the image of a 3^rd and 1 or a 4^th and goal. That’s not completely the case.

In this case, short yardage means anywhere from one to ten yards.In that area, no other team is better.

Hall of Fame coach Hank Stram’s famous quote was to “Just keep matriculating the ball down the field.” And New England is extremely proficient at this.

They lead the league in first downs, a sign that they prefer to nibble bites of yardage over simply hurling the ball on deep routes.

66 percent of the 496 passes Tom Brady’s attempted this season have been thrown either behind the line of scrimmage or in the one to ten yard range.

It’s the type of offense that was once labeled as a “nickel and dime” scheme, since it avoids dangerous deep throws downfield.

Looking at the personnel in the Patriot’s passing game, it isn’t a big surprise that this is their strategy.

Welker’s strength, as was mentioned before, lies in his ability to get open “underneath” the coverage and then make yardage after the catch. In fact, he’s tied for the league lead in yards after catch with Ray Rice at 574.

Hernandez, a player too big to be a traditional receiver but too small to be a traditional tight end, is also proficient at running underneath. He’s certainly found a home with Tom Brady and is creatively utilized in the Pat’s scheme.

Gronkowski, unlike Hernandez, is most definitely large enough to play the role of a traditional tight end. And despite his size, he’s fast enough to pose problems for linebackers, especially deep.

Can They Win the Super Bowl This Way?

The Pats strategy for their passing game is clear: utilize Tom Brady’s intelligence and decision making in a short field.

(How it evolved into that is up for debate. Do the Patriots throw short because they have the perfect players for that system or vice versa? It’s got a chicken and egg quality to it.)

Still, questions remain as to whether they can go all the way doing this. Can they defeat the NFL’s top defenses in January by constantly throwing short?

As it stands right now, only three players on their team are averaging more than 15 yards a catch. One is Matt Slater, who’s one catch for 46 yards would seem to be his crowning achievement if it wasn’t for his competence filling in at defensive back.

The second is Chad Ochocinco, who has 13 catches for 228 yards (an impressive 17.8 yards per catch).

This stat, perhaps more than any other, reveals why Bill Belichick took a gamble on Ochocinco. He can take the top off the defense and, as Bill Walsh once said, “challenge the extra man in coverage.”

The third is none other than Rob Gronkowski himself. At 15.3 yards a catch (and a new single-season tight end record 15 touchdowns), Gronkowski has become the deep threat in the Patriot offense.

It’s a rare event that a position like tight end could ever see such a phenomenon, given the nature of a tight end’s job and the physical characteristics that usually go with that. Tight ends are generally bigger, stronger players who can block inside.

Yet as a consequence of being bigger and stronger is that they’re generally slower too.

Gronkowski is fast for his size and has above average quickness, which combines with his hulking size to create a matchup nightmare for defenses.

So can New England triumph with such an unorthodox offense and such an unusual player to challenge downfield coverage?

No one can know until the playoffs start and we actually see how well teams scheme to block up Welker and Gronkowski. Yet as anyone knows in the postseason, being so good in short yardage can make all the difference. Now, about their defense…